Forecast and analysis of steel import and export in 2023

Due to the impact of the national strategic goal of energy conservation and emission reduction, the impact of the national policy of promoting imports and reducing exports of the steel industry and the impact of the global economic downturn, the number of China's steel exports from January to November 2022 decreased by 5.1% compared with the same period in 2021. The total amount of imported steel was 9.867 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 25.6%. In addition, in 2022, crude steel supply fell by 2.35% and consumption fell by 2.90% year on year. Affected by the epidemic and domestic economic situation, the production of steel by domestic steel manufacturers was significantly reduced.

Looking at the global economic situation, the economic growth of major economies such as Europe and the United States has slowed down, and the demand of developed markets has weakened accordingly. The continuous interest rate increase of the Federal Reserve has led to a substantial depreciation of the RMB. This will further intensify the contradiction between domestic supply and demand. This will increase the price of raw materials of steel, reduce the enthusiasm of manufacturers in production, and bring a huge test to dealers. However, with the effective control of the epidemic in China and the gradual recovery of the domestic economy, the national policies on infrastructure construction investment in order to stimulate domestic demand will help stimulate domestic demand for steel and stimulate economic growth.

Overall, China's domestic demand for steel will rise slightly in 2023, while foreign demand will remain stable. In 2023, the demand for steel in China's home appliances, railways, machinery, automobiles, energy, steel and wood furniture and other industries will increase, while the demand for steel in construction, containers, hardware products and other industries will decline slightly.